They are aided and abetted by over-paid and over-valued stats guys who talk a different language to the rest of us. For example factors which I know through experience and long-term profit influence the result of a match they dismiss out of hand as "noise".   

These models produce home/away/draw percentages which are converted into asian handicap prices then adjusted for factors which I do agree with such as team news and team spirit. The adjusted prices are compared with the asian handicaps on offer with far east bookmakers (mainland China, Hong Kong and other exotic locations) and where the price available exceeds the pro punters price by the margin he requires (normally 5% ROI) he bets.   

I can normally tell exactly which teams these punters will be backing by the time I have Friday night team news in the few leagues in which I operate. Where I know they will be backing a price I like I will make sure that I take it for myself as they are only able to bet in the size that they require on the day of the match and they do not want to give clues before that about where their money is destined to go.

Sometimes however knowing their selection process I realise that their model will strongly oppose the team I am waiting to back and I can sit back and wait until late on Saturday morning  when the weight of their money will give me an exceptional price about my team which would have drifted 30 to 40 basis points. I shall only give one example here but last week an hour before match time I was able to obtain 2.419 Partick draw no bet to beat St Johnstone when I had them as 1.875 draw no bet favourites.

These models are far too long term in their assessment of team form in the leagues where I bet. To me the last weeks match statistics and reports are the most relevant information allied to team news. The previous two or three matches are the next most important. The previous season has little or no relevance. Models have no intelligence, emotion or human feelings and therefore, for example, disregard the importance of bogey teams. I can assure you having spoken to many players that they do not and teams they never seem to get a result against are a constant topic of discussion, affect their thinking and, too an extent, adversely affect them next time they play such a team.

Shrewd movements in asian handicap prices on any English or Scottish league can however throw up some excellent value fixed odds prices where these bookmakers have either failed to adjust their prices quickly to follow the asian handicap market or have been left alone by the pro punters due to the maximum size of the bet available being far too small to interest them. This is normally where updated team news or other factors not in the public domain are known only to the pro punter and his associates.

Using models to me is a far too rigid framework in which to operate to maximise profits. Successful betting is both an art and a science and whilst they have the latter in spades they are not even GCSE standard in the former. Your mind needs to be free, able to think laterally and walk the random walk.

When my eyes alight on the first list of prices for the weekend in the leagues in which I bet a I experience a frisson of excitement when I quickly spot over-priced teams. Jim Slater used to say in the late 1960's in his pomp that he just had to look at the share price pages of the FT to pick stock "winners" to invest in. It is a similar skill to one the ultimate pro gambler will strive for.

Of course racing on BBC has "little Willie" Carson who will never tire of telling you what an expert on breeding he is. Willie will point to a filly and say something like “She’s out of Rothschild by Lady Spencer and she's bred for speed. Sure to enjoy a stiff six that one" The excellent Clare Balding who normally would steer him out of trouble would be fighting back the giggles and one would long for her to say “She's my choice Willie”

As far as racing commentators go Peter O'Sullevan even way past his pomp was still different class and has yet to be matched.

Overall cricket probably has had the best commentators and from John Arlott to the peerless Richie Benaud and the lovable Brian Johnston on radio's Test Match Special. Geoffrey Boycott and Ian Botham are not afraid to criticise and it is refreshing to hear retired top class players speaking their mind and saying what a captain, batsman or bowler should be doing right now to achieve the team's objectives.

My enjoyment of the excellent golf coverage on Sky is spoiled by just the opposite approach by the otherwise competent Ewen Murray. The degree of "brown nosing" is nauseating. Every time Tiger Woods hits a 330 yard drive down the fairway you would think nobody else has ever done it whereas several lesser players on the tour hit it longer and straighter though clearly the rest of their game is vastly inferior. Mickelson, who in my view is an under-performer gets the same adoration. No doubt this is because frequent guest pundit Butch Harmon was Wood's coach until he was sacked and now coaches, Mickelson, Scott and Ernie Els as well as several other tour pros. Talking of Ernie Els he is the biggest under-achiever and "bottler" in world golf for a man of his raw ability but I am waiting for one of the Sky Sports team to have the courage to point this out. We are constantly told what a talent he is and how relaxed his swing. What a load of nonsense. His swing is now being remodelled by Harmon because his weight is too far back apparently. Here's a tip Ernie: Lose at least three stone in weight, get fit and then worry about tinkering with your golf swing. I wish him luck because he's clearly one of the good guys but next time he chokes lets have the Sky team on his case.

Moving on to football will someone please tell John Motson to put his feet up and watch football on the box like the rest of us. He might discover that Martin Tyler is performing far better than he ever did. Hopefully it would persuade him to retire immediately

What international team have failed to win or reach the final in their last 21 major competitions over 40 years? This team have also been high in the betting for almost all of those championships actually being quoted initial favourites for the current one for a short time before failing to progress from a qualifying group? This team of over-paid, over hyped losers have been a goldmine to oppose in key cup matches over the years, normally by backing their opponents and the draw when they were favourites and just sitting back and waiting to collect. With the advent of betfair in the last few years it has been possible to benefit massively by laying this team outright, laying them in the group betting and laying them in individual matches. Sheer joy! Since 1968 these jokers have managed one 3rd place in these 21 competitions and that was 40 years ago in the European Championships. Nothing since. Giants of the game such as the Czech Republic (winners in 1976, runners up in 1996, 3rd in 1960 and 1980) Russia (runners up in 1964, 1972 and 1988 - they won in 1960) Greece (winners in 2004) and Denmark (winners in 1992) have vastly better records and have been several times the price of our under-achievers in every one of the World Cups and European Championships since 1968. This hopeless bunch  are of course England's football team - long may they remain laying fodder to benefit us all while we enjoy the beautiful game played better and with more passion (didn't you just feel sick when Steve McClaren used the word every other sentence about what he expected from his uninspired squad) by other teams. In my opinion Capello will win nothing with the current crop of England players either but time will tell. My bets will be heavily on failure.

Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon

I have watched all sports avidly for forty years but if there has ever been a greater sportsman than Tiger Woods I must have missed something.

 
Is he human or an alien being come to seduce people of all races in to willing him to produce his magic and win when a superhuman effort is required just to contend? Without Barack Obama would he have been the first black president of the United States? He’d certainly do a better job than the cerebrally challenged incumbent.

 
The golf swing takes a toll on joints and vertebrae in a fully fit golfer but today Woods is nursing a knee injury which is certainly not fully recovered from recent surgery. Clearly he is in considerable pain and even with the medication and his desire not to show any signs of weakness he winces and bends over double in distress after many of his drives. No other golfer would even be out there in that condition, let alone contending. Some of his drives have been over 60 metres off line and he has needed a miraculous putting touch including two curling efforts of over 70 feet to stay in the hunt.

 
After starting his final round with a double bogey 6 followed by a bogey 5 he slipped out of the lead and his hope of extending his record of thirteen major wins out of thirteen when leading or sharing the lead after round three was in serious danger. His price moved from 1.7 to 5.0 on Betfair and for a mere mortal he was a lay at this price but this is Tiger Woods. I had a liability of £11000 on him and gratefully laid back for a profit at an average price of 4.8 vowing never to get myself in a such a position again. I had also laid another 13 golfers not now in contention.

 
Tiger arrived at the 13^th hole back in the lead and as short as 1.20 on Betfair and it seemed that major number 14 was now a formality. Inexplicably, considering his wayward driving, and the fact that two full shot would be required to stand an outside chance of reaching the green on this par five he took the driver and hit the ball way left into the iceplants. He and Westwood, currently lying first and second, both took six to seriously compromise their chances as Rocco Mediate played as if without a care in the world taking full advantage and the lead.

 
Mediate finished at -1 with Woods and Westwood both needing a birdie on the par 5 eighteenth to force a playoff. After poor drives neither could go for the green in two and Westwood left a downhill putt of around 18 feet whilst Woods had a fairly straight putt of around 15 feet. After Westwood missed it was left to Woods to decide whether Mediate, pacing the scorer’s tent for a full twelve minutes looking both nervous and excited, would be required to play an 18 hole playoff with the greatest sportsman on the planet or could lift the trophy which to be perfectly honest he richly deserved.

 
Woods examined the line, backed off, looked again, settled down and stroked a perfect putt home sending the crowd delirious. Cheer him on tonight for we are privileged to see this warrior in battle. As Jack Nicklaus (a record eighteen majors) said many years ago: “He plays a game with which I am not familiar”.