|
A PRIMER OF ANTE-POST BETTING - PART 1
HORSE RACING
Looking back over my records for the last 10 years this has proved an excellent profit stream with a return on investment of over 130% on stakes. This year the highlight was 20/1 EW Pour Moi in the Derby.
Excluding the £800 EW Silver Birch at 100/1 to win the Grand National the return on investment is still 96% which I hope you will agree is a very acceptable figure.
Most of my success in this period has been on National Hunt Racing, particularly the Cheltenham N.H. Festival and the Grand National. As markets at the Aintree Grand National meeting where I have made net profits for ten consecutive years are not normally available until a few days before the respective races I have not included this as ante-post bets.
My bets are always struck at big prices and I have a general guideline as to the minimum price I am prepared to take based on the length of time from the date the bet is struck until the date that race is run.
6 months or more - NO BET AT ALL
5-6 months - 33/1
4-5 months - 25/1
3-4 months - 20/1
2-3 months - 16/1
1-2 months - 12/1
under 1 month - At least 75% bigger than
expected SP
Consider the case of Big Bucks currently quoted at 4/5 to win the 2012 World Hurdle. What you are betting on here is a double - Big Bucks to make it to the post and Big Bucks then to win. I would rate this Horse no bigger than 1/2 to make it to the post for a race five and a half months away. Therefore, in my opinion you are getting 1/5 (I'll repeat that - FIVE TO ONE ON) for it to win. I think it will be much bigger than that on the day if it runs - don't you? To a lesser extent it would be madness to back Long Run at 5/2 to win the 2012 Gold Cup or Hurricane Fly at 7/4 for the Champion Hurdle.
SOCCER
Cup Betting
What do you think is the percentage chance of Celtic meeting Rangers BEFORE the final if they enter a Scottish Cup competition at the last 32 stage and they beat every other team that they meet on the way? The answer is 48.39% which must be much larger than most people will expect. Of course there is a good chance that at least one of the Old Firm will fall to a lesser team as Rangers did to Falkirk in the CIS Insurance League Cup last week.
In the last 44 Scottish Cup and Scottish League Cup finals Celtic have met Rangers only five times but either Celtic or Rangers have been the winners 30 times. Prices of 2/1 each of two are therefore correct in the Ante-Post win market but the place market when priced at 1/2 odds 1,2 is quite a different matter. If you could find two or three generously priced teams in good recent form to back each way you will be unlucky not to have a finalist at 12.5/1 a place or better!
In 2007 I calculated that after the fourth round (last 16 stage) Queen of the South were a true price of 210/1 to win the cup and 42/1 to reach the final. Ladbrokes will remember, less fondly than I do, my £100EW at 350/1 (1/2 odds 1,2). Rangers beat Queen of the South 3-2 in the final.
Generally there is more value to be found in outright Cup betting than in outright League betting. This is because odds compilers must suspend outright betting during League matches and revise their odds after each match day. However, the Cup competition prices are constantly available between each round. Even where an odds compiler changes his opinion about a team due to improved performance or the opposite or key long-term injuries this will only be reflected in the prices put up for the League outright market. Virtually all the time all of the teams Cup prices will be unaffected. This applies to F.A. Cup, Carling Cup, Europa League, Scottish F.A. Cup and Scottish League Cup where opportunities to take advantage of this laziness will produce bets that will show an abnormally good return over a period. |
